The tensions seen in the Ukraine crisis have profound but difficult-to-predict implications. It is another sign of the times. But both the tensions and the events that generate them are indicating that a new and complex cycle has begun in the international order, which will have a distinct multipolar scope in the future.

This will increase the need to approach the international relations of any country from three perspectives.

The first is that of each country as a protagonist in the global international system. Whatever its size and relative power, every country will need to have an accurate diagnosis of the importance of its relations with each of the other countries and, in particular, with the most relevant and the closest ones.

The second is the perspective of the geographical region to which a country belongs. This implies having a clear idea of the relative importance that the country has for the political stability, economic development and peace of its region.

And the third perspective is that of the world as a whole. This means the relative importance that a country may have in the functioning of the international global system and, most particularly, in the preservation of conditions for peace or in the development of conflicts that may result in armed confrontation.

The current crisis in Ukraine has, therefore, strengthened the need to analyze integration processes such as those currently taking place in South America and Latin America, especially in the context of Mercosur, with a broader view that takes into account the factors that affect trade and economic development, but also the strengthening of the conditions for the rule of peace and political stability in the region as a whole.

As Ignacio Bartesaghi rightly points out in the title of his article published on February 27, 2022 (see the reference in the Recommended Reading section of this newsletter), the war that has broken out in Ukraine can be perceived as a factor that adds tensions to an already turbulent global political context. It has even reinstated the possibility of a new world war. Moreover, this conflict might also add tensions that would further complicate the global economic context.

These are tensions whose deeper implications are still difficult to forecast accurately, but which can easily be imagined in the light of many historical experiences, including those of the two World Wars of the last century.

It is another sign of the times. But both the tensions and the events that generate them are indicating that a new cycle is emerging in the international order, which would have a notoriously multipolar and even anarchic character, and which would aggravate the current situation of marked uncertainty.

All this is accentuating the increasingly evident need to approach the international relations of any country from at least three simultaneous perspectives.

The first is the perspective of each country as a player in the global international system. Whatever its size and relative power, every country will need to have an accurate diagnosis of the relative importance of its relations with each of the other countries and, in particular, with the most relevant and the closest ones.

The second is the perspective of the specific geographic region to which a country belongs. This implies having a clear idea of the relative importance that each country may have for the political stability, economic development and peace of its region.

And the third is the perspective of the global international system. This is the relative importance that a country has in the functioning of the world system, especially for the preservation of conditions of stability and peace and, above all, in the event of conflicts that could lead to possible military confrontations with other countries.

It should also be taken into account that, among other impacts, the current crisis in Ukraine accentuates the need to review some of the mechanisms foreseen at the international level to promote economic cooperation among nations. This is more feasible in the case of mechanisms that are relevant and that have already shown their limitations to be effective and efficient. At the multilateral level this is the case, for example, of the global trade system institutionalized in the World Trade Organization.

It is also quite possible that there will be an increased appreciation, due to economic as well as political reasons, of regional economic integration processes. The impact on the European Union, for example, is likely to be significant. The Ukrainian government has already expressed its interest in accelerating its incorporation into this process, precisely because of the experience gained in the aftermath of World War II.

Let us recall that the proposals initiated in 1950, among others by Jean Monnet, Robert Schumann and Konrad Adenauer (see the book by Victoria Martín de la Torre, listed as Recommended Reading at the end of this newsletter), were based on the need to avoid the recurrence of the factors that had led to the war and that could produce a similar outcome if the current confrontation between Europe and Russia were to escalate.

The speech by the President of Ukraine, on February 27 before the European Parliament linked precisely, the future of his country to its admission to the EU.

The current crisis in Ukraine has, therefore, strengthened the need to analyze integration processes such as those currently under way in South America and Latin America, especially within Mercosur, with a comprehensive approach that includes all the factors that affect trade and economic development, but which also transcend to help strengthen the conditions for the prevalence of peace and political stability in the region as a whole.

Lecturas recomendadas:

• Bartesaghi, Ignacio, "Guerra en Ucrania: un conflicto que suma tensiones a nuestro convulsionado contexto político", Tradenews, 27 de febrero 2022 (www.tradenews.com.ar).
  
• Binetti, Bruno, "Que significa ser parte de la franja y la ruta de China", diario "La Nación", sección opinión, Buenos Aires 17 de febrero 2022, en www.lanación.com.ar/opinion/que-significa-ser-parte-de-la-franja-y-la-ruta-de--China-nid17022022.
  
• Bosca, Roberto, "Pobrismo y capitalismo según el Papa", diario "La Nación", sección opinión, Buenos Aires 15 de febrero 2022.
  
• Capdevila, Inés, "¿Estamos ante una guerra en Europa, o ante una Tercera Guerra Mundial?, diario "La Nación", Buenos Aires 25 de febrero 2022.
  
• Chhabra, Tarun; Doshi,Rush; Hass, Ryan; Kimball, Emilie (editors), Global China. Assessing China´s Growing Role in the World", Brookings Institution Press, Washington D.C. 2022.
  
• De la Balze, Felipe, "Estados Unidos, China y la Política Exterior Argentina", Academia Nacional de Ciencias Morales y Políticas, Buenos Aires 2021.
  
• Dian, Matteo; Menegazzi, Silvia, "New Regional Initiatives en China´s Foreign Policy. The Incoming Pluralism of Global Governance", Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.
  
• Ding, Zhijie, "What a multi-phased reforma strategy of the WTO should look like", East Asia Forum, 2 march 2022, en www.eastasiaforum,org.
  
• Economy, Elizabeth C., "The World According to China", Council on Foreign Relations Book, Cambridge - Medford 2022.
  
• Garten Jeffrey E., "From Silk To Silicon. The Story of Globalization Through Ten Extraordinary Lives", chapter VII "Jean Monnet. The Diplomat Who Reinvented Europe 1888-1979", Harper, New York-London-Toronto-Sidney, 2016.
  
• Girado, Gustavo A., "Un Mundo "Made" in China. La larga marcha hacia la creación de un nuevo orden mundial", Capital Intelectual, Buenos Aires 2021.
  
• Goh, Evelyn, "50 years on: changing China policy", East Asian Forum, 28 February 2022, en www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Gubin, Andrey, "Russia's blossoming ties with ASEAN", East Asian Forum, 4 February 2022, en www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Gupta, Sourabh, "The Shangai Communique´s relevances endure in age of US-China strategic competition", East Asian Forum, 28 February 2022, en www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Harari,Yuval Noah, "El mundo sin guerras, un legado de la humanidad que está en riesgo", diario "La Nación", Buenos Aires, 2 de marzo 2022.
  
• Harley Breen, John, "Prospects for the United Kingdom's CPTPP accession", East Asian Forum, 31 January 2022, www.eastaasiaforum.org.
  
• Lagorio, Ricardo, "La República Argentina debe recuperar su lugar en el mundo", diario "La Nación", sección opinión, Buenos Aires 17 de febrero 2022.
  
• Legvold, Robert L., "Return to Cold War", Polity Press, Cambridge - Malden, 2016.
  
• Luttwak, Edward N., "The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy", the Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge - London 2012.
  
• Mabrouk, Hatem, "Would Harmonizing Preferential Rules of Origin Aid Trade Liberalization", 2015
  
• Malmgren, Pippa, "Geopolitics for Investors", CFA Institute Research Foundation, Charlottesville, VA; New York; Washington DC 2015.
  
• Martín de la Torre, Victoria, "Europa, un Salto a lo Desconocido. Un viaje en el tiempo para conocer a los fundadores de la Unión Europea", prólogo de Javier Solana, Encuentro S.A., Madrid 2015.
  
• Mauldin, John F.; Wray, Worth W. (editors), "A Great Leap Forward? Making Sense of China´s Cooling Credit Boom, Technological Transformation, High Stakes Rebalancing, Geopolitical Rise, & Reserve Currency Dream", Mauldin Economics 2015.
  
• Sarotte, M.E., "Not One Inch. America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate", Yale University Press, New Haven - London 2021.
  
• Staiger, Robert W., "A World Trading System for the Twenty First Century", Ohlin_Book_RWS-Final_Revision_10142021.pdf.
  
• Urata, Shujiro, "Japan´s new model of capitalism in an uncertain world", East Asia Forum, 14 February 2022, en www.eastasiaforum..org.
  
• Ureta, José Nestor, "Por una firme política exterior conforme a los intereses del país", diario "La Nación", sección opinión, Buenos Aires 17 de febrero 2022.