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    | A GLOBAL COMMERCIAL SCENARIO WITH MULTIPLE OPTIONSNecessary requirements for the development of an assertive strategy
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    | by Félix PeñaJuly 2020
 
 English translation: Isabel Romero Carranza
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    |    | When considering the possibilities for the future 
        development of foreign trade from the perspective of a country such as 
        Argentina, among others, it is advisable to acknowledge that the global 
        commercial scenario presents multiple options. This holds true both for 
        those who seek to sell goods and services and for those who need to define 
        what and where is most convenient to buy.
 There are three requirements that would be necessary in order to substantially 
        improve our country's ability to understand the future development of 
        its foreign trade, in a global context with multiple options and that 
        is undergoing a process of constant change.
 Without dismissing others, these three closely linked requirements 
        are: 
         having human resources capable of understanding other national 
          realities and their modes of consumption, particularly of those goods 
          and services that, due to the endowment of its own resources, a country 
          such as Argentina can produce and eventually export;
 
 facilitating the development of specialists with sufficient knowledge 
          of the political, economic, cultural and legal realities of other countries, 
          including, of course, their foreign relations; and
 
having human resources with a reasonable understanding of the predominant 
          language of other countries and a sound knowledge of the prevailing 
          customs of their populations.  To conceive and develop a successful strategy for the commercial 
        insertion in the global scenario of a country such as Argentina, will 
        require a constant effort from its society to understand the dynamics 
        of the changes, especially cultural ones, that affect the priorities of 
        the citizens and consumers in other countries. These have become increasingly 
        empowered, meaning that they are now fully aware of the numerous options 
        at their disposal and of their power when deciding what they need or want 
        to acquire. |  
   
    |  One of the effects of the current Covid-19 pandemic has been to accentuate 
        the relevance of two complementary perspectives that influence the definition 
        of a country's international insertion strategy. The first of these perspectives 
        is that of the reality and the interests of the country itself, the second 
        is that of the world as a whole, not because they can be viewed as a unit, 
        but because certain external factors that affect a country can only be 
        understood from a global perspective, i.e., that of the group of countries 
        in their reciprocal interaction.  When reflecting on the possibilities for the future development of foreign 
        trade in the perspective of a country such as Argentina, among others, 
        it is advisable to acknowledge that the global commercial scenario presents 
        a picture of multiple and growing options. This holds true both for those 
        who seek to sell goods and services and for those who need to define what 
        and where it is most convenient for them to buy. (See the 
        April 2020 edition of this newsletter: "Trade and integration 
        in a more contagious world. Ideas, beliefs, values, dreams, plagues
in 
        a hyper-connected global world ", on http://www.felixpena.com.ar/). Developing practical knowledge on how to identify such options, from 
        a specific national perspective, is then one of the needs that Argentine 
        SMEs that attempt to project successfully to the rest of the world have 
        to address.  This is so because the world today has multiple protagonists with varying 
        degrees of relative power and with a greater capacity to define their 
        own strategies for international insertion. The global market is now much 
        more populated-by countries, companies and people-and, at the same time, 
        more connected-geographically, economically, digitally and culturally-. 
        Above all, there is a larger number of consumers that have become aware, 
        due to their income level and their access to information, of the options 
        available to them when deciding what they need to buy and where they can 
        get it, even in markets other than their own.  But, above all, because it is a world where the factor of cultural diversity 
        has acquired widespread presence and relevance, which makes it even harder 
        to try to reach these different consumers without adapting the offering 
        to their tastes, beliefs, values, lifestyles and priorities. This also 
        involves having an in-depth knowledge of foreign markets, including their 
        historic roots and differentiating aspects. In general, such knowledge 
        is acquired by having lived in a country for a certain period of time 
        and gained experience, in one way or another, of its market.  This is a world in which not only the undergoing profound changes have 
        become more evident in recent years -and even months, if the experience 
        of the Covid-19 is taken into account-but which will also continue to 
        develop in a constant process of change. As we have pointed out before, 
        these are changes that have an enormous capacity to render obsolete criteria, 
        concepts and theoretical approaches that have been used for a long time 
        in an attempt to understand the international reality.  There are three requirements that would seem necessary in order to substantially 
        improve the ability of a country, such as Argentina, to understand the 
        future development of its foreign trade in a global context with multiple 
        options and in a constant process of change.  Without dismissing others, these three closely linked requirements are: 
         Having human resources capable of understanding other national realities 
          and their respective modes of consumption of goods and services that, 
          due to the endowment of resources, the country can produce and eventually 
          export. That means to train professionals and technicians to have a 
          correct and, if possible, direct knowledge of what consumers from other 
          countries may eventually demand. This kind of knowledge can be acquired 
          mainly through living in a foreign country for a period of time as a 
          student, company executive, temporary worker, journalist, artist, scientist, 
          athlete, diplomat, or any other activity, even as a "backpacker". 
          This helps capture a more in-depth knowledge of the effects of cultural 
          diversity with respect to the observer's country of origin;
 
Facilitating the development of specialists with sufficient knowledge 
          of the political, economic, cultural and legal realities of other countries, 
          including, of course, their foreign relations. This implies human resources 
          with a sufficient knowledge of literature and history, as well as of 
          the eventual ethnic or religious diversities of the countries with which 
          it seeks to increase commercial ties. It involves training people who 
          can show not only understanding, but, above all, respect and even admiration 
          for the other country.
 
Having human resources with a reasonable understanding of the predominant 
          language or languages of the foreign country and the main customs of 
          its population. Although English is a language of universal scope, having 
          at least an understanding of the predominant language of the foreign 
          country, when it is not English, is highly advisable for anyone wanting 
          to live and eventually work there. These are human resource requirements that can, moreover, affect the 
        modalities of cooperation between our country and other countries of our 
        own region (for example, Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance) and other 
        regions of the world (for example, the European Union; ASEAN and other 
        Asian schemes of preferential trade and regional development, and the 
        various processes of African integration), and with countries that, due 
        to their relative economic dimension, have a strong presence in all regions 
        of the world, as are undoubtedly China, the US, and several others in 
        the category of "intermediate powers", especially from Europe, 
        Asia, Africa and Oceania.  These are requirements to be developed with the necessary interaction 
        and cooperation between educational institutions of the country itself 
        and even of other countries and at all levels, including universities; 
        business chambers and other social institutions; and national and federal 
        agencies that have a bearing on the promotion and development of foreign 
        trade and the internationalization of companies, especially SMEs.  A suitable modality for the collaboration and interaction of these different 
        protagonists can be that of trade laboratories (Tradelab), developed with 
        special emphasis on the legal aspect. (In this regard refer to the book 
        by Joors Pauwlyn and Mengvi Wang, listed as recommended reading, among 
        others). |  
   
    | 
         Afinogenov, Gregory, "Spies and Scholars. Chinese Secrets and 
          Imperial Russia's Quest for World Power ", The Belknap Press of 
          Harvard University Press, Cambridge & London 2020.
 Bircher, Marisa, "Mercosur-UE: un año del consenso que 
          marca el camino que necesita Argentina", in El Cronista newspaper 
          , June 27, 2020.
 Elizondo, Marcelo, "Sector automotor: el nuevo pacto con Brasil, 
          ¿es el último paso antes de nuevos cambios?", in 
          the Foreign Trade Supplement, newspaper La Nación, Thursday June 
          4, 2020, www.pressreader. com / argentina / lanacion. 
 Frankopan, Peter, "El Corazón del Mundo. Una Nueva Historia 
          Universal",, Editorial Planeta, Barcelona 2016,
 Frankopan, Peter, "Las Nuevas Rutas de la Seda. Presente y Futuro 
          del Mundo". Editorial Planeta, Barcelona 2016.
 Frankopan, Peter, "Las decisiones que se toman en China la darán 
          forma al mundo del siglo XXI", interview by Hugo Alconada Mon published 
          in newspaper "La Nación", June 28, 2020, p. 12, www 
          .lanation.com.ar / the-world / peter-frankopan-the-decisions-are-made-china-nid2387027. 
          
 Gewen, Barry, "The Inevitability of Tragedy. Henry Kissinger 
          and his World ", WWNorton & Company, New York 2020.
 Kimmage, Michael, " The Abandonment of the West. The History 
          of an Idea in American Foreign Policy ", Basic Books, New York 
          2020.
 Klein, Matthew C .; Pettis, Michael, "Trade Wars are Class Wars. 
          How Rising Inequalities Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International 
          Peace ", Yale University Press, New Haven & London 2020.
 Nogués, Julio, "Biodiesel: la lección que le dejaron 
          a la Argentina las disputas con EE.UU y la UE", in "The Chronicler," 
          June 24, 2020
 Nye, Joseph S. Jr., "Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreing 
          Policy from FDR to Trump ", Oxford University Press, New York 2020.
 Pauwlyn, Joost; Wang, Mengvi (eds),"Building Legal Capacity 
          for a More Inclusive Globalization. Barriers to and Best Practices for 
          Integrating Developing Countries into Global Economic Regulation ", 
          The Graduate Institute - Center for Trade and Economic Integration (CTEI), 
          Geneva 2019.
 Peña, Félix, "Un quiebre bajo análisis: 
          ¿considera el gobierno de Brasil dejar el Mercosur?", published 
          in the Foreign Trade Supplement of newspaper La Nación, Thursday, 
          June 18, 2020, www.lanacion.com. ar / economy / evalua-brazil-leave-mercosur-nid2380362. 
          
 Scott, Andres J .; Gratton, Lynda, "The New Long Life. A Framework 
          for Flourishing in a Changing World ", Bloomsbury, London 2020.
 Sinclair, Upton, " The Jungle ", Xist Publishing, Tustin 
          CA 2015.
 Sinclair, Upton,"Worlds End ", Open Road, New York 2016. |  
   
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    | Félix Peña Director 
        of the Institute of International Trade at the ICBC Foundation. Director 
        of the Masters Degree in International Trade Relations at Tres de Febrero 
        National University (UNTREF). Member of the Executive Committee of the 
        Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI). Member of the Evian 
        Group Brains Trust. More 
        information. |  
 
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