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    | THE POLITICAL WILL TO BREAK AWAY FROM INERTIA: A necessary condition to restore the construction dynamic of Mercosur?
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    | by Félix PeñaAugust 2016
 
 English translation: Isabel Romero Carranza
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    |    | Three recommendations would seem appropriate in order 
        to break away from the inertia in which the process of construction of 
        the Mercosur seems to have fallen into, thereby restoring a reasonable 
        dynamic and the trust, even the enthusiasm, of the citizenships with the 
        common project. 
       The first recommendation would be to fully utilize 
        the existing diversity of the different legal frameworks based on agreements 
        that help build a space such as Mercosur while integrating it with the 
        rest of the Latin American region. These agreements provide the legal 
        foundation for one of the key elements of this construction, a space of 
        economic preferences aimed at facilitating the productive articulation 
        between the participating countries. Such distinct legal frameworks are: 
        the Treaty of Asuncion, which created the Mercosur; the bilateral Treaty 
        of 1988, which formalized the integration, cooperation and development 
        program between Argentina and Brazil; and the 1980 Treaty of Montevideo, 
        which created the LAIA. 
       The second recommendation would be to accentuate political 
        leadership, improving management capacity and ensuring effective compliance 
        with the agreed ground rules.
       And the third recommendation has to do with the promotion 
        of productive articulation, especially through business networks that 
        span several countries and are facilitated by sectoral agreements. This 
        is the backbone of the architecture of a process such as Mercosur. 
       Rescuing the figure of the sectoral agreement can 
        be an effective way to restore the dynamic of the construction of Mercosur 
        and, simultaneously, to carry out the strategy of convergence in diversity 
        with the Pacific Alliance countries. These agreements are compatible with 
        trade preferences of variable geometry and multiple speeds. This would 
        also involve addressing other issues that are relevant for the development 
        of regional value chains projected to the world, such as those involving 
        trade facilitation, regulatory frameworks, intellectual property, government 
        procurement, and services, among others.
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    |  It would be difficult to deny that Mercosur is experiencing a deep crisis. 
        Differences of opinion between the governments of the member countries, 
        regarding who should assume the Pro-Tempore Presidency of the Mercosur 
        bodies during the second half of 2016, has accentuated the perception 
        that the integration process confronts serious difficulties in articulating 
        the different interests and points of view of its members. Such coordination 
        appears to be almost impossible at times, especially in the current political 
        and economic scenario. The Presidency is not an organ of Mercosur and thus it is not included 
        in the organigram (http://www.mercosur.int/). 
        It is a function provided for in the Protocol of Ouro Preto for a collegiate 
        body, which is the Mercosur Council. This function extends to the other 
        collegiate bodies. It symbolizes the fact that for a six month period 
        and in rotation, one of the member countries takes charge of the function 
        of promoting the Mercosur. But this function has not altered the way in 
        which the decisions related to the integration process are adopted. The 
        country that holds the temporary presidency has no formal power to make 
        binding decisions. In practice, the exercise of this function has not 
        altered the tendency towards inertia and the loss of dynamism that has 
        been observed over the past several years. An advisory opinion -a figure also provided for in the Protocol of Ouro 
        Preto-would perhaps help clarify the issue and thus channel the current 
        debate on the subject through a more precise path.  In a way, what is happening reflects a governance deficit of the integration 
        process, which dates back to a previous time, much before the current 
        differences were made evident. The main problem is not so much that there 
        are differences, even deep ones, in the visions of the integration process 
        and on how to develop it. Of greater concern is the relative paralysis 
        in the dynamic of Mercosur, which is supposed to be the result of a continuous 
        process of construction of a common preferential space, as a way to facilitate 
        joint productive transformation of the partners and consolidate democracy 
        and economic and social development. Such paralysis makes the differences 
        over the so-called Pro-Tempore Presidency even more relevant than what 
        they should be.  Given the situation, it would seem relevant to try to answer the following 
        questions: How to overcome the relative inertia that the construction 
        of Mercosur is experiencing now? How to imprint it with a dynamic that 
        befits the challenges faced by its member countries, both internally, 
        within their own region and also globally? How to restore a certain trust 
        among citizenships in the relevance and the future of the regional integration 
        process?  These are some of the questions that seem to require a frank discussion 
        between the leaders of the member countries and, in particular, between 
        the political leadership. Indeed, they are not very different from the 
        questions being faced by the rulers and political leaders in the European 
        Union, especially since it has become clear that the "Brexit" 
        is not necessarily an isolated and transient episode ( see the July 
        2016 issue of this Newsletter on www.felixpena.com.ar). This is a debate that would need to take place in each of the member 
        countries, in view of what are the real alternatives to the current Mercosur. 
        If the hypothesis were that a country has other viable options with similar 
        political, economic and social qualities -for example, in terms of creating 
        conditions of peace and political stability in the region and, at the 
        same time, facilitating productive transformation, economic and social 
        development and competitive insertion in the world-a possible rational 
        alternative would be either to resign membership altogether or to endeavor 
        to agree with all the partners the end of the current experience of Mercosur. 
        We have mentioned it on other occasions: nothing and no one forces a country 
        to participate in a voluntary process of regional integration if it considers 
        it is not convenient for its own interests and that there are other options 
        available. Neither are all the partners obliged to go ahead with the project 
        (see our interview published by O Estado de Sao Paulo, in its issue of 
        August 14, 2016, on http://internacional.estadao.com.br/). Notwithstanding others, three recommendations would seem appropriate 
        in order to actually break the inertia in which the process of construction 
        of the Mercosur finds itself today and reestablish a reasonable dynamic 
        and the trust, even the enthusiasm, of citizenships with the common project. 
       By stating it in these terms we are suggesting to set aside the idea 
        that integration can only be achieved through simple, straightforward 
        and almost automatic steps -as would be, for example, establishing a free 
        trade zone or customs union, or even an economic and monetary union-, 
        the notion of a "one shot integration", in which the essential 
        is defined in the founding moment and everything else happens almost automatically. On the contrary, we are proposing the need to imagine a process of integration 
        between sovereign nations willing to remain so, as a sometimes erratic 
        sequence of winding steps aimed at objectives which, in their ideal form 
        -as stated by theory- may never be achieved. That is, in contrast to what 
        is suggested by the most dogmatic views, a construction process that has 
        to be continuous and without an end point -if by this we understand a 
        new autonomous unit of power in the international system such as, for 
        example, the "United States of Europe" or the "United States 
        of South America "-and that will recurrently face crisis, possibly 
        existential and not only methodological. (In this regard, see the book 
        by Luuk van Midderlaar, "The Passage to Europe", Yale University 
        Press, 2013). The first recommendation relates to fully utilizing the diversity of the 
        different legal frameworks based on existing agreements, which enable 
        to build a space such as Mercosur and simultaneously integrate it with 
        the rest of Latin America and, at least, the South American region.
 These agreements provide the legal foundations for one of the most essential 
        elements of the construction: an area of economic preferences with a strong 
        dose of exclusivity aimed at facilitating the productive articulation 
        between the participating countries. In order to be effective, these preferences 
        must be protected from a premature wearing out of their effects on the 
        decisions of productive investment, as would happen if they were not guaranteed 
        legally, or if they could easily be rendered irrelevant through successive 
        preferential agreements that any of the partners acting "on their 
        own" could sign with third countries.  Such distinct legal frameworks are: the Treaty of Asuncion, which created 
        the Mercosur; the bilateral Treaty, which formalized the integration, 
        cooperation and development program between Argentina and Brazil; and 
        the Treaty of Montevideo, which created the LAIA (ALADI).  Today, the commitments made by the Mercosur partner countries and other 
        Latin American countries are embedded in these different legal frameworks 
        and, sometimes, in all three simultaneously. The set of these distinct 
        legal frameworks is what enables to build an integration space between 
        the member countries of the current Mercosur with variable geometry and 
        multiple speeds. Nothing prevents, for example, to use the bilateral agreement 
        between Argentina and Brazil to promote, in the framework of LAIA -for 
        example, using the instrument of economic complementary agreements-, sectoral 
        agreements in which other LAIA countries participate and not necessarily 
        all who are members of Mercosur. The flexibility provided by the way in 
        which Mercosur has interpreted the instrument of the common external tariff 
        would facilitate such kind of approaches that, moreover, already have 
        precedents in the experience of Mercosur. The second recommendation involves accentuating political leadership, 
        improving management capabilities and ensuring reasonable compliance with 
        the agreed ground rules.
 Political leadership, exercised primarily by the head of a state, characterized 
        the founding moments of the agreements between Argentina and Brazil, thirty 
        years ago, and of Mercosur itself, twenty five years ago. There have always 
        been times of political leadership but they have not always preserved, 
        with intensity and at presidential level, the necessary continuity and 
        coordination with the management capacity.  Management capacity was manifested in the founding moments in the articulation 
        between presidential leadership and the so-called Common Market Group, 
        most notably through the crucial role of the respective coordinators. 
        Being able to identify at each moment and in each specific country, who 
        exercises such coordination and, therefore, is effectively in charge of 
        the management of Mercosur, is fundamental to the effectiveness needed. 
        This is not always possible, beyond the access to the names of those who 
        formally hold office. A good test in this regard consists of asking businessmen, 
        journalists or other actors -such as diplomats from other countries- who 
        they believe has responsibility for coordinating the effective management 
        of Mercosur in the corresponding country. It is also essential that such 
        management capacity could be strengthened by the role assigned to the 
        technical body, which is the Mercosur Secretariat. More than a so-called 
        supranational body, its function is to facilitate the process of coordination 
        of national interests. Except in exceptional moments, this function has 
        not been evident in the history of Mercosur. When building a regional space, as when playing soccer, compliance with 
        the rules of the game is what provides a certain order in economic competition 
        and in the relations between nations of unequal size, ensuring the respect 
        for the interests of those who have less relative power. As we have noted on other occasions, the quality of the rules and the 
        effectiveness of the mechanisms that create them, as well as of those 
        who can independently control their fulfillment, are, along with political 
        leadership, key elements to ensure that the construction of integration 
        respects the national interests of all the countries involved, both large 
        and small. And it is, in our opinion, a key factor if the objective is 
        to effectively overcome the current inertia that paralyzes the Mercosur. And the third recommendation is related to the articulation of productive 
        activity, especially through business networks that span several countries 
        and that are facilitated precisely by sectoral agreements. This is probably 
        the backbone of the architecture of a process such as Mercosur. Its roots 
        are in the original proposals of Latin American integration of the late 
        fifties. It again became a backbone in the founding moments of the bilateral 
        agreements between Argentina and Brazil. It was likewise in the initial 
        concept of Mercosur. Later on, sectoral agreements were drawn into a relative 
        oblivion. Perhaps such forgetfulness is one of the factors that led to 
        the subsequent inertia.  Recovering the figure of the sectoral agreements can then be an effective 
        way to restore the dynamic of the construction of Mercosur and carry forward 
        the strategy of convergence in diversity with the Pacific Alliance countries. 
        For this purpose, and in addition to political leadership, it would also 
        be necessary to have companies with offensive interests and the ability 
        to link up with other companies.  Such agreements are compatible with trade preferences of variable geometry 
        and multiple speeds. In order to be effective, they require adequate good 
        quality physical connectivity. They also entail addressing other relevant 
        issues for the development of value chains of regional scope and projected 
        to the world, such as those relating to trade facilitation, regulatory 
        frameworks, intellectual property, government procurement, and services, 
        among others. This is an approach that allows developing the agreements 
        in relation to the different sectors and, eventually, to specific sub-sectors, 
        and among them, the industrials and agro-industrials stand out, as does, 
        increasingly, the services sectors. |  
   
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    | Félix Peña Director 
        of the Institute of International Trade at the ICBC Foundation. Director 
        of the Masters Degree in International Trade Relations at Tres de Febrero 
        National University (UNTREF). Member of the Executive Committee of the 
        Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI). Member of the Evian 
        Group Brains Trust. More 
        information. |  
 
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