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    | CONDITIONS FOR AN EFFECTIVE REGIONALISM: What lessons can be learned from the experience accumulated by Mercosur?
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    | by Félix PeñaFebruary 2012
 
 English translation: Isabel Romero Carranza
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    |    | Its revalorization for the construction of a solid 
        foundation for effective global governance that can be sustainable in 
        time, updates the issue of how to achieve a global and efficient regionalism. 
        This is a topic that becomes current due to the fact that, sometimes, 
        the actions and agreements of regional or inter-regional scope, given 
        the case, lose relevance with the passing of time. They even reflect a 
        trend to generate media events by governments which, even when deemed 
        historic, are not always materialized or fail to produce the anticipated 
        results.
 Latin America is a geographical space with a wealth of experiences, actions, 
        strategies, institutions and regional agreements of different kind and 
        scope. These present an abundance of diversity and overlapping, sometimes 
        only apparent, of functions and objectives. Even when they respond to 
        realities and have an underlying logic, this institutional patchwork is 
        not easy to understand from outside the region.
 Regionalism in Latin American countries has also numerous 
        expressions of inter-regional scope which conform, in practice, a wide 
        global network with different intensities.
       Mercosur is one of the main expressions of Latin American 
        regionalism. Much has been written about its trajectory and real results. 
        In recent times, the debate over its effectiveness and efficacy has reemerged. 
        This debate has been encouraged by President José Mujica, among 
        others, who, from his Uruguayan perspective, has pointed out the shortcomings 
        and flaws of Mercosur which would be convenient to discuss, confront and 
        overcome. 
       A debate over the institutional quality of Mercosur 
        could be furthered if some valid issues to assess the effectiveness and 
        efficacy of any regional or inter-regional agreement were identified. 
        Particularly when they have political objectives aimed at facilitating 
        the governance of a regional geographic space through the construction 
        of a thick web of social networks of all kinds, for which purpose ground 
        rules and symbols to help identify citizenship with a common project are 
        created. 
       Given the dominant trends in the world scenario, including 
        those that lead to revalue a "revamped" regionalism as a condition 
        for global governance, it would seem opportune to follow President Mujica 
        lead by undertaking a sincere and wide-ranging multidimensional debate 
        on the future of Mercosur.
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    | Regionalism in its different variations -on degrees of institutionalization 
        and on emphasis in the geopolitical and/or the economic-commercial- is 
        being actualized. This is helped by the deep changes that are taking place 
        at the international level and the evident difficulties in putting together 
        actions that are aimed at furthering the existing global agreements and 
        institutions or at redesigning them, when necessary. (See the article 
        by Ian Brenner listed as recommended reading of this newsletter and the 
        report by the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk of World Economic 
        Forum on http://www3.weforum.org/). 
        
 These are changes that have a bearing on the distribution of relative 
        power among nations and on the growing economic convergence that has been 
        noted by Giovanni Arrighi (see the reference to his book in the recommended 
        reading section of this newsletter) and by Michael Spence (see the reference 
        to his recent book in the recommended reading section of the November 
        2011 edition of this newsletter), among other authors. These changes also 
        relate to the greater physical, economic and even cultural connectivity 
        between the different sovereign territories, sometimes far removed from 
        each other; to the redefinition of what exerting sovereignty in a national 
        geographic space implies; to the multiple modalities of integration of 
        the transnational value chains and, in particular, to the awareness by 
        many of the stakeholders (countries, social organizations and people) 
        that they now hold the power and that they are ready to use it.  The difficulties are evinced, for example, by the stagnation -or should 
        we say hibernation? - of the Doha Round within the World Trade Organization 
        (WTO). This was made clear in the last Ministerial Conference, which met 
        in Geneva last December (see the January 2012 edition of this newsletter), 
        as well as in the panel on global trade and international trade negotiations 
        organized by the World Economic Forum of Davos, on Saturday 28 January, 
        2012 (see http://www.weforum.org/)-. 
        It is also made evident by the perception that the G20, even when playing 
        a useful role in the collective management of the current international 
        financial crisis, is not fully regarded as an efficient mechanism for 
        the construction of a new and necessary architecture of global governance 
        -at least in the economic and international trade fields.  The revalorization of regionalism, even as a way of building a solid 
        foundation for efficient global governance that is sustainable in time, 
        updates the issue of how to make it effective, i.e. that it is able to 
        penetrate reality. This is an issue that becomes more current in view 
        of the fact that, sometimes, actions and agreements of regional or inter-regional 
        scope, given the case, fail to go beyond the short or medium term. On 
        the contrary, they may reflect a trend to generate media impact by the 
        corresponding governments and, even when their historical relevance is 
        proclaimed, they ultimately fail to be consummated or produce the announced 
        results. Other times they lose their initial momentum after a first period 
        of enthusiasm and relative effectiveness. There are some cases in which 
        a regional agreement remains suspended in some kind of limbo, as if it 
        were a "sleeper cell", and notwithstanding awakens and updates 
        its validity as a response to the changes in circumstances. The Arab League 
        (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_League) 
        has recently been cited as an example of this due to its role in the Libyan 
        and Syrian crises (see the article by Ian Bremmer listed as recommended 
        reading in this newsletter).  Latin America is a geographical space with a wealth of experiences, actions, 
        strategies, institutions and regional agreements of very different type 
        and scope. In recent times, the trend towards regional agreements has 
        intensified through the creation of the Union of South American Nations 
        (UNASUR), (http://unasursg.org/) 
        and most recently of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States 
        (CELAC), (http://en.wikipedia.org/). 
        They represent a picture full of diversities and of apparent overlapping 
        of functions and objectives. Even when they are a response to concrete 
        historic realities with an underlying logic, this institutional patchwork 
        is not always well understood from outside the region. (On this regard, 
        refer to the article by Michael Shifter listed in the recommended reading 
        section of this newsletter). In Latin America, regionalism also has numerous expressions of inter-regional 
        scope which implies, in practice, a global network with different intensities. 
        Among other aspects it manifests through several bilateral agreements 
        that countries such as, for example, Chile and Peru have signed with countries 
        in Asia and the Pacific; in the participation in relevant inter-regional 
        forums such as that of the APEC; or in agreements currently under negotiation 
        such as the Transpacific Partnership (TPP). It manifests in particular 
        in the relations with the US and Canada, within the Inter American system, 
        as well as in the deeply rooted historical relations with the nations 
        of the European geographic space that have translated into a dense fabric 
        of actions and bilateral agreements and, increasingly in later years, 
        bi-regional agreements. It has also had a relevant expression in the Ibero-American 
        front with the yearly summits and the intense action of the General Ibero-American 
        Secretariat in charge of Enrique Iglesias. The Inter-American, the bi-regional involving Europe and the Ibero-American 
        ambits seem to require much re-engineering for their adaptation to the 
        new regional and international realities. The upcoming presidential summits 
        -the Sixth Summit of the Americas to be held in Cartagena, Colombia, in 
        April of this year (http://www.summit-americas.org/); 
        the 18th Ibero-American Summit, that will take place in Cadiz, Spain, 
        next October (http://www.cadiz2012.es/cumbre.asp), 
        and the EU-CELAC Summit, that will meet in Santiago de Chile in January, 
        2013- may provide an opportunity to "re-tune" (as per the well-chosen 
        expression used by Francesc Castells in the article listed as recommended 
        reading of this newsletter) the relations, expectations and aspirations 
        of the participating countries.
 Mercosur is one of the main manifestations of Latin American regionalism. 
        Much has been written on its trajectory and efficacy (refer to our article, 
        listed as recommended reading, based on a presentation for the Global 
        Governance Programme, Robert Schumann Centre for Advanced Studies, European 
        University Institute, of Florence, Italy). In recent times, the debate 
        over the effectiveness and efficacy of Mercosur has been updated. This 
        has been promoted by President José Mujica, among others, who from 
        his Uruguayan perspective pointed out the shortcomings and flaws of Mercosur 
        that should be discussed, confronted and overcome. As all good political 
        leaders, he has the ability to summarize in short phrases the essence 
        of a message directed to citizens and not exclusively to leaders or experts. 
        On one occasion he remarked that Mercosur was "lame and reduced to 
        misery". More recently, in an interview for the weekly Búsqueda, 
        of Montevideo (February 9, 2012) he said that Mercosur existed in reality 
        but that from the legal point of view it had been "made into a chewing 
        gum". He was resuming in this way what he had expressed some time 
        before in reference to the fact that Mercosur was deadlocked and that 
        had a problem of "institutional quality" (in an interview published 
        by the newspaper Folha de Sâo Paulo, on 29 January, 2012; see as 
        well the piece by Flavio González entitled "El Mercosur estancado" 
        on page 37 of Clarín newspaper of 4 February, 2012). This is an 
        issue that was later picked up by Chancellor Luis Almagro when, on a recent 
        meeting at the Chamber of Deputies of Uruguay, he pointed out, among other 
        things, that the mechanism for the resolution of disputes was Mercosur's 
        weak point given that there are no legal or economic incentives to comply 
        with what is agreed. (See Infobae.com from 9 February, 2012). The current debate on Mercosur's institutional quality could be furthered 
        in the measure that some valid issues to assess the effectiveness and 
        efficacy of any regional or inter-regional agreement are identified. Particularly 
        when there are political objectives aimed at facilitating the governance 
        of a regional geographic space through the construction of a dense weave 
        of social networks of every kind, for which purpose ground rules to turn 
        the conditions for productive investment more predictable and symbols 
        to identify citizens with a common project are created.  In our opinion, Mercosur's own experience -but also that of other regions 
        including, of course, the European Union- helps us identify at least three 
        necessary questions, without dismissing others or the possible unfolding 
        that could result from each one of them.  Such questions are: How to generate a stable scenario for mutual gain 
        between the member countries, given the existing differences -sometimes 
        very pronounced- in relative power and level of economic development? 
        How to adopt common decisions that are materialized in effective ground 
        rules that penetrate reality and produce the desired results, and that 
        have sufficient social legitimacy as a result of the right degree of transparency 
        and citizen participation present during their creation? And finally: 
        How to reconcile a strategic and preferential relation between countries 
        that, at the same time, may aspire to develop strategies of multiple alliances 
        with other nations as a consequence of the new international realities 
        and of global economic competition? Given the dominant trends in the world scenario, including those that 
        lead to a revalorization and at the same time a re-evaluation of regionalism 
        as a condition for global governance, it would seem opportune to respond 
        to the incentives introduced by President Pepe Mujica by undertaking a 
        multidimensional debate on the future of Mercosur, with an ample participation 
        of the citizenship. This debate could focus, for example, on the questions 
        listed above.  |  
   
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    | Félix Peña Director 
        of the Institute of International Trade at the ICBC Foundation. Director 
        of the Masters Degree in International Trade Relations at Tres de Febrero 
        National University (UNTREF). Member of the Executive Committee of the 
        Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI). Member of the Evian 
        Group Brains Trust. More 
        information. |  
 
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