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    | A PARTNERSHIP WITH 2020 AS THE PROJECTED 
      TIME HORIZON? The expected outcomes of the upcoming LAC-EU Madrid Summit.
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    | by Félix PeñaApril 2010
 
 English translation: Isabel Romero Carranza
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    |    | The 
        upcoming VI LAC-EU Summit, to be held in Madrid on May 18, will offer 
        an opportunity to reaffirm the identity as a differentiated international 
        space and to encourage the reciprocal relations between both regions with 
        a future projection.
       The LAC-EU relation 
        is made manifest by a wide array of interactions that take place at multiple 
        planes, with varying degrees of density, depending on the countries and 
        sectors involved, and with pronounced asymmetries as well. It may be considered 
        as a very particular relation due to at least three factors: its deep 
        roots, its economic and political relevance and its future prospects. 
         One of the results 
        that can be expected from the Madrid Summit is an action plan aimed at 
        projecting the interregional space into 2020 as a time horizon, promoting 
        initiatives and mechanisms that enable joint work.  Three are the paths 
        that would enable to harness the future joint action of both regions. 
        The first one is related to the relevant issues of the global agenda, 
        in relation to which the LAC-EU countries could contribute a great deal 
        if they are able to coordinate their respective positions. The second 
        path refers to the gradual creation of a strategic bi-regional partnership 
        that takes into account the existing diversities and that is equipped 
        with differentiated mechanisms and flexibility. Finally the third path 
        refers to the specific initiatives aimed at enabling bi-regional cooperation, 
        such as facilitating investments in Latin America, the creation of the 
        Euro-Latin American Foundation and a joint action plan in the areas of 
        research, technology and innovation. The abovementioned 
        results would undoubtedly be magnified if the negotiations for a bi-regional 
        association between the European Union and Mercosur were to be re-launched 
        during the Summit. This outcome seems highly possible.
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    |  When the Heads of State and Government of Latin America and the Caribbean 
        (LAC) meet on May 18 at the Madrid Summit, they will have the opportunity 
        to confer and take decisions concerning the particular relation between 
        two very significant regional spaces.   The sole fact of having generated an ambit for the dialogue at the highest 
        political level is in itself a positive outcome of a Summit such as the 
        Madrid one. Many of the participants don't know each other. There have 
        been several changes in government leaders on both sides of the Atlantic 
        since the last Summit, held in Lima two years ago. At least two Presidents 
        of LAC countries - Chile and Uruguay - that will be attending the Summit 
        have taken office very recently. There have also been significant changes 
        among the high commission of the European Union. The newly appointed officers 
        are probably not familiarized with the LAC region.   More substantial still is the fact that the Summit offers an opportunity 
        to reaffirm the identity of the inter-regional space and to encourage 
        mutual relations. It is expected that the roadmap towards a 2020 time 
        horizon will be designed in Madrid. At the same time new instruments and 
        mechanisms will be devised for the joint work between both regions.  The personal acquaintance among the political leaders is always useful, 
        as is the adoption of decisions aimed at increasing the bi-regional cooperation, 
        much more so in a moment such as the present one in which the international 
        system is undergoing a process of deep change, plagued with uncertainty. 
       In the area of world trade, even though a scenario of strong growth can 
        be foreseen after the pronounced fall of last year, the questioning over 
        the real and long-term effects of the financial crisis is still prevalent 
        (on the subject, see the press release by the WTO on the perspectives 
        of world trade for this year on http://www.wto.org/spanish/news_s/pres10_s/pr598_s.htm). 
        The effect of the financial crisis on some of the EU member countries, 
        such as Greece, has generated a debate over the need to intensify integration 
        at the level of economic policy, especially in the case of those countries 
        that have adopted the Euro currency.  On another note, in spite of the efforts made by the negotiators in Geneva, 
        there is no evidence of a favorable outlook regarding the specifics for 
        the conclusion of the multilateral negotiations of the Doha Round, within 
        the scope of the World Trade Organization. (On this regard refer to the 
        report by AITIC listed under the Recommended Reading section of the present 
        Newsletter. Additionally, see the periodical by ICTSD, Bridges Weekly 
        Trade News Digest, volume 14, number 12, March 31, 2010, on http://ictsd.org/i/news/bridgesweekly/73389/). 
        It would seem that the trend towards the proliferation of preferential 
        trade agreements - i.e.: which are discriminating for those countries 
        not participating in them - has accentuated lately. It has recently been 
        anticipated that it is possible that the negotiations for a free trade 
        agreement between the EU and India could be concluded by the month of 
        October (the negotiating mandate was formally adopted in April 2007 and 
        during her recent trip to New Delhi, Karen de Gucht, responsible for Trade 
        at the European Commission, pointed out that the expectation is to conclude 
        a free trade agreement by next October - on this issue see Agence France 
        Press of March 5, 2010 on www.bilaterals.org. On the possible India-EU 
        FTA refer to the book by Sangeeta Khorana and other authors listed under 
        the Recommended Reading Section of this Newsletter which introduces some 
        interesting considerations on the practical implications of the "substantial 
        trade" requirement of WTO regulations). The dimensions of both markets 
        make it impossible to underestimate the effects on the future of world 
        trade.
 The LAC-EU relation is made manifest by a wide array of interactions 
        that take place at multiple planes, with varying degrees of density, depending 
        on the countries and sectors involved, and with pronounced asymmetries 
        as well. It may be considered as a very particular relation due to at least three 
        factors: its deep roots, its economic and political relevance and its 
        future prospects. However, it is not an exclusive nor excluding relation. 
        It couldn't be. In today's world all countries and regions have numerous 
        choices for their international insertion and need to profit from them 
        fully. This is valid for the EU as well as for the LAC and for each and 
        every country that forms part of their respective geographical spaces. 
        In the case of the South American countries, for example, the growing 
        economic presence of China - both in the trade and investment planes - 
        has increased the potential for the diversification of its international 
        trade relations. In this sense, President Hu Jintao's April visit to Brazil, 
        Chile and Venezuela is an event laden with future expectations, even due 
        to the investment announcements that have been made for such reason. The 
        April 15 meeting of the II Summit of the BRIC countries in Brasilia signals 
        a redesign in the map of global economic competition. (For the conclusions 
        of this meeting go to http://www.mre.gov.br). The deep roots that characterize the special relation between the LAC 
        and the EU have been nurtured by a shared history of mixed signals and 
        varied outcomes. Not all of them have been considered positive. Memories 
        from the past not always evoke events that are perceived or appraised 
        in the same manner on both sides of the Atlantic. Even today some aboriginal 
        Latin American people aspire to claim the rights of those identities that 
        were weakened by the arrival of the Europeans to the region. However, 
        the important point is that migrations, trade, investments, technical 
        progress and cultural standards have generated through time a dense web 
        of shared life experiences and interests.  From there, the political and economical relevance of the bi-regional 
        relation. It is precisely the result of shared values and of a vision 
        of society that has common elements; of economic interests that have been 
        made manifest through flows of trade and investments. In the case of Europe 
        this has materialized through the presence of many of its companies in 
        Latin American countries, or in their interest to capitalize on the potential 
        for future economic growth of some countries of the region. However, the 
        presence of Latin American companies with investments in EU markets has 
        been observed only in the last years. For this reason the Euro-Latin American space constitutes a differentiated 
        inter-regional space within the global international system, with its 
        own history and characteristics. It would be hard to imagine a future 
        path that doesn't include, such as in the past, multiple connection points. 
       Thus, one of the outcomes that can be expected from the upcoming LAC-EU 
        Summit is an action plan aimed at projecting the inter-regional space 
        into a 2020 time horizon, encouraging initiatives and mechanisms that 
        facilitate joint work. This has been the focus during the past months 
        of the preparatory stages of the May Madrid Summit, which includes several 
        field-specific meetings such as the one which will take place on April 
        19 - 20, within the scope of the Ibero- American General Secretariat (SEGIB). There are various paths that will enable to continue building on the 
        idea of a bi-regional strategic alliance, an idea that was launched in 
        1999 at the first LAC-EU Summit of Rio de Janeiro. This is precisely the 
        main concept upholding the biannual summit system, which has been in place 
        for more than a decade.  A first course of joint action is related to the great challenges originated 
        by the deep changes that are taking place worldwide. In this sense it 
        is to be expected that the future bi-regional agenda focuses the joint 
        work on the main issues that have a bearing on global governance. Due 
        to the number of countries involved, the nations from both regions may 
        play a relevant role, provided they are able to coordinate their positions 
        in accordance with their diverse national and regional interests. A top 
        priority, among others, is the bi-regional cooperation for the creation 
        of conditions that guarantee peace and international security. This would 
        imply strengthening the multilateral system, within the scope of the UN, 
        and the effectiveness of the G20 mechanism, which will have the chance 
        - and the challenge - to prove itself at the upcoming Toronto Summit. 
        However, this also implies that both regions can play an active role to 
        ensure the conclusion of the Doha Round, as well as to achieve a reasonable 
        outcome from the negotiations on climate change during the Summit that 
        will take place in Mexico (something that was not possible to achieve 
        at the past Copenhagen Summit). A third relevant issue for the Madrid 
        agenda is related to the role of both regions in the fight against organized 
        crime and the different modalities of international terrorism. The second path is related with specific issues of the reciprocal relations 
        and, in particular, with the idea of a bi-regional strategic partnership 
        conceived as a gradual, long-term process that will require the conciliation 
        of multiple diversities through variable geometry and multi-speed flexible 
        work methods and instruments. Among them, the priority is the creation 
        of a network of multiple association agreements of a preferential nature 
        and with a deep strategic purport. Until the present day, the EU has signed 
        preferential agreements with Chile and Mexico and, at the same time, strategic 
        partnerships with Brazil and Mexico. It is expected that the preferential 
        agreements with Colombia, Peru and the Central American countries will 
        be formalized in Madrid. Additionally, the possibility that the bi-regional 
        negotiations with Mercosur could be re-launched on such occasion has also 
        gained momentum.  A complementary third path refers to the creation of special mechanisms 
        to strengthen cooperation between both regions and their different countries. 
        Three of these mechanisms could be mentioned as a result of the preliminary 
        work completed for the Madrid Summit. The first one would be a Facility 
        for Investments in Latin America, with an initial endowment of European 
        funds and aimed at strengthening regional integration, encouraging social 
        cohesion programmes and developing physical infrastructure. The second 
        one would be a Latin American Foundation that would help support the idea 
        of achieving greater visibility with the actions taken towards the development 
        of the bi-regional partnership. On this regard there is a Foundation within 
        the scope of the ASEM that already has an accredited history (on the Asia-Europe 
        Foundation see http://www.asef.org/). 
        The third would be a joint action plan for research, technology and innovation 
        which would unfold in multiple ways depending on the different fields 
        of bi-regional cooperation.  If these were the main results of the Madrid Summit, the expectations 
        that meetings at the highest political level such as this one generate 
        on the public opinion would be fully justified. Such results would no 
        doubt be magnified if, on occasion of the Summit, the negotiations for 
        the establishment of a bi-regional association agreement between the EU 
        and Mercosur, halted in October of 2004, were to be re-launched. Indeed, 
        this outcome seems highly possible. |  
   
    |  Recommended Reading of Recent Publication: 
        AITIC, "Situation Report on The WTO Stocktaking Excercise held 
          March 2010", Agency of International Trade, Information and Cooperation 
          (AITIC), Geneva April 2010 en http://www.aitic.org. 
          
Castro, Lucio; Saslavsky, Daniel, "Cazadores de Mercados., Comercio 
          y promoción de exportaciones en las provincias argentinas", 
          CIPPEC, Buenos Aires 2009.
CEPAL-BID, "Cambio climático: una perspectiva regional", 
          Informe preparado para la Cumbre de la Unidad de América Latina 
          y el Caribe (Riviera Maya, México, 22 y 23 de febrero de 2010), 
          CEPAL-BID, Santiago de Chile, febrero 2010, en http://www.eclac.org. 
          
DeShazo, Peter, "Outlook for Indigenous Politics in the Andean 
          Region", A Report of the CSIS Americas Program, Center for Strategic 
          & International Studies (CSIS), Washington, December 2009, en http://www.csis.org.
Evenett, Simon (ed.), "The US-Sino Currency Dispute: New Insights 
          from Economics, Politics and Law", a VoxEu.org Publication, Centre 
          for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, April 2009 en http://www.voxeu.org/reports/currency_dispute.pdf 
          or click 
          here.
Foxley, Alejandro, "Market versus State. Postcrisis economics 
          in Latin America", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 
          Washington 2010, en http://www.CarnegieEndowment.org/pubs. 
          
Giambiagi, Fabio; De Barros, Octavio (orgs.), "Brasil Pós-Crise. 
          Agenda para a próxima década", Elsevier-Campus, Rio 
          de Janeiro-Sâo Paulo 2009.
Hont, Istvan, "Jealousy of Trade. International Competition and 
          the Nation-State in Historical Perspective", The Belknap Press 
          of Harvard University Press, Cambridge and London 2010.
Innovation Task Force, "Innovation Ireland. Report of the Task 
          Force", Report of the Innovation Taskforce, March 2010, en http://www.innovationtaskforce.ie.
Joshi, Vivek, "Preferential Tariff Formation: The Case of the 
          European Union", CTEI Working Paper, Geneva June 2009. 
Khorana, Sangeeta; Perdikis, Nicholas, Yeung May T.; Kerr, William 
          A., "Bilateral Trade Agreements in the Era of Globalization. The 
          EU and India in Search of a Partnership", Edwar Elgar, Cheltenham, 
          UK - Northampton, MA, USA 2010.
Mercosur ABC, "Temas del Mercosur - Dossier de Integración", 
          Nº 67, Enero 2010, en http://www.mercosurabc.com.ar. 
          
Sader, Emir; García, Marco Aurelio (orgs.), "Brasil entre 
          o passado e o futuro", Editora Fundaçao Perseo Abramo-Boitempo 
          Editorial, Sâo Paulo 2010.
Shapiro, Jeremy; Witney, Nick, "Towards a Post-American Europe: 
          A Power Audit of EU-US Relations", European Council on Foreign 
          Relations (ECFR.EU), November 2009.
Slocum-Bradley, Nikki, Identity Construction in Europe: A Discursive 
          Approach", UNU-CRIS Working Papers, W-2010/2, Brugge 2010, en http://www.cris.unu.edu. 
          
Slocum-Bradley, Nikki; Bradley, Andres, "Is the EU's Governance 
          Good?: An Assessment of EU Governance in its Partnmership with ACP States", 
          UNU-CRIS Working Papers, W-2010/1, Brugge 2010, en http://www.cris.unu.edu. 
          
Stamponi, Guillermo, "Una visión argentina de la Revolución 
          Rusa. Informes diplomáticos reservados y confidenciales", 
          Asociación Profesional del Cuerpo Permanente del Servicio Exterior 
          de la Nación, Buenos Aires 2009. 
Wignaraja, Ganeshan; Lazaro, Dorothea, "North-South vs. South-South 
          Asian FTAs: Trenes, Compatibilities, and Ways Forward", UNU-CRIS 
          Working Papers, W-2010/3, Brugge 2010, en http://www.cris.unu.edu. 
          
WTO, "International Trade Statistics - 2009"; World Trade 
          Organization, Geneva 2009, en http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2009_e/its2009_e.pdf 
          or click 
          here. |  
   
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    | Félix Peña Director 
        of the Institute of International Trade at the ICBC Foundation. Director 
        of the Masters Degree in International Trade Relations at Tres de Febrero 
        National University (UNTREF). Member of the Executive Committee of the 
        Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI). Member of the Evian 
        Group Brains Trust. More 
        information. |  
 
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